After watching both Astana and APOEL, I have no doubt that APOEL is the better team. Their performances have been below par and not sure is it because all the the new players or the manager but I have been waiting for them to click. They finally did on Saturday after they beat Ermis 1-5 in the league.
Ok, Ermis was not ready for this match as they have signed 23 new players this season including 6 during last week but psychologically a team that should score goals is not scoring and then does 5 times in a match usually opens the flood gates. Especially for Stilic and Luis Leal it was a big thing.
On paper, APOEL has a much stronger team than last season with maybe the left back position being the exception. It takes time to gel with a new manager and players and they will get better after each match. In these matches European experience goes a long way and APOEL has that. Also its Astana now who has to make the long trip to Cyprus. I also feel that the motivation is on APOEL´s side. They really want to make it back to Champions League group stages. I am not saying Astana does not but they are already in the Europa League group stages guaranteed so they have already reached their goal. Getting to CL is just extra.
I am convinced that they can beat Astana by at least 2 goals and go through. I would be even more convinced if Vander would be available and he still might but it is a race against time that one. Makrides was able to train with the team so he should be fit for this match.
APOEL will try for the 4th time in their history to be in the Champions League group stage while for Astana it will be the 1st.
The first game in Kazakhstan can be divided in several parts. The first 20 minutes were all Astana. APOEL entered the field with a pathetic approach and Astana took an early lead. Of course, 1 minute before Astana scored, APOEL had a penalty not given.
After 20 minutes and until the end of first half, Astana gave space to APOEL but the wrong decisions of coach Pacienza at the starting lineup didn't help APOEL to become dangerous.
At the second half, until 65-70 APOEL was all over Astana but they weren't really dangerous except 1-2 cases. The injury of Efrem balanced the game and at the last 20 minutes Astana was really dangerous on counter attacks and could at least scored another one.
The first game gave me the impression that APOEL is a bit better team than Astana. They have better individuals but they are not 100 "team" yet. Astana has some excellent individuals but most importantly they all defend and attack like a team, so this balances every disadvantage they have.
As guys already mentioned, APOEL had a good win against Ermis on Saturday which will help some players self-confidence like Leal and Stilic.
The coach of Astana is a good tactician and knows how to treat this game, so tactically coach Pacienza needs finally to be tactically perfect if APOEL wants to enter the group stage.
I rate the odds for HW around 1.90 fair so it is a no bet for me. Also, i am a bit pessimist regarding APOEL's chances to keep a clean sheet. They conceded at least 1 goal at 5/7 of their official games. Astana has good players upfront especially Foxy, Dzhoichiev and striker Kabananga who looked dangerous in the 20 minutes he played. So bettingwise, i could recommend G/G.
Personally, i will be romantic and bet on 3-1 correct score. APOEL managed their two first qualifications in Champions League with this score after having lost the first leg 1-0 (against FC Copenhagen and Wisla Krakow).
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